The GSM Hypothesis

2021-01-04T00:00:00+00:00

The 2019 Pandemic - GSM Hypothesis

As the human race battles for a crushing solution to end the SARS-Covid 2 Virus (or atleast mutate it for the greater good), the pandemic rages on. Infecting people across the Globe by defying medical theories, mathematical models, epidemiologists’ predictions and community medicine specialists’ hypothesis, the virus continues to prevent our lives from returning to normality.

Hence the Virus Pandemic and its spread needs to be understood in the broader sense, viz.a.viz, its origin and its growth and spread.

How did the virus come about?

There has been much speculation that the Virus has had its origin at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, China (Source for Virus origin in Wuhan – “Detection of Covid-19 in Children in Early January 2020 in Wuhan, China”). Other theories like the spread of this Virus from the nearby ‘Bat Hills’ of Wuhan and its proximity to villages are not valid for the simple reason that ‘Bat Havens’ are spread across on the Globe. Additionally, there were no such trace of this Virus originating from the other such Bat ‘Hot Spots’. Hence the theory floated by the Chinese establishment that the origin of this parasite is from the Animal Market of Wuhan and not the Wuhan Institute of Virology is untenable.

The changing genome sequence of this Virus indicates that the strong probability of the Virus particle being man-made and hence contrived in the Wuhan Institute of Virology. This issue is still strongly disputed in the scientific community, however. The factual pointers in this directions can be related to the eclipsing of the Virologist Dr.Shi by the Chinese Establishment.

The WIV lab, along with researchers in the U.S. and Switzerland, showed in 2015 the scary-good capability of bat coronaviruses to thrive in human cells. In that paper, which was published in 2015 in the journal 'Nature Medicine', they described how they had created a chimeric SARS-like virus out of the surface spike protein of a coronavirus found in horseshoe bats, called SHC014, and the backbone of a SARS virus that could be grown in mice.

In 2018, after scientist diplomats from the U.S. embassy in Beijing visited the WIV, they were so concerned by the lack of safety and management at the lab that the diplomats sent two official warnings back to the U.S. (Source).

In this background of the enlarging and deepening tentacles of this pandemic, it is pertinent to mention the following speculative points :

The almost certain fact that the Virus originated from WIV indicates that Dr. Shi was very involved in the contrivation of this particle. Dr.Shi is not available to us to reveal the exact intention and nature of this particle.
There is every possibility that the creation of this Virus was part of a Biological Warfare program charted out by CPC/PLA with the intention of erasing a ‘target population’, when let loose. The ways and means of ‘letting loose’ a load of this Virus is debatable.
The WIV would have also thought of a vaccine, for this virus, being the creator of this parasite.
The WIV would have also thought of control measures of this Virus, in the event of an unlikely outbreak of this Virus, from its Lab.

It is the fundamental job of the WHO to study the nature and origin of this so-called Virus and also suggest ways to the Global community of Humans and animals on the measures to counter it and its spread. In the absence of the WHO not fulfilling in its duties, the humans across the Globe are now facing this pandemic from the past twelve months, without a clue of an instant medicinal solution.

Conversely, one of the most prominent journals in the fields has this to say regarding origin of COVID in WIV:

This origin story is not currently supported at all by the available data," said Adam Lauring, an associate professor of microbiology, immunology and infectious diseases at the University of Michigan Medical School.
In that Nature medicine study — one of the strongest rebukes of this idea — Kristian Andersen, an associate professor of immunology and microbiology at Scripps Research, and his colleagues analyzed the genome sequences of SARS-CoV-2 and coronaviruses in animals. They found that a key part of SARS-CoV-2, the spike protein that the virus uses to attach to ACE2 receptors on the outsides of human cells, would almost certainly have emerged in nature and not as a lab creation.
"This analysis of coronavirus genome sequences from patients and from various animals suggests that the virus likely arose in an animal host and then may have undergone further changes once it transmitted and circulated in people," Lauring told Live Science.
"you can't answer this question through genomics alone," said Dr. Alex Greninger. That's because it's impossible to definitively tell whether SARS-CoV-2 emerged from a lab or from nature based on genetics alone. For this reason, it's really important to know which coronaviruses were being studied at WIV. "It really comes down to what was in the lab," Greninger told Live Science.

How is the Virus transmitted?

The studies/researches on this Virus and pandemic so far by the scientific community has been inconclusive and still in progress. There is a growing consensus in amongst the medical community that this Virus by and large enters a victim’s system through Eyes, Nose or Mouth. The Virus seems to transfer itself into these three organs from the air around through bubbles and aerosols or by touch, mostly by hand.

Assuming transmission and entry from the air around into the victim’s three organs is a medical reality, and if it is to be further presumed that the entry of this Virus from the atmosphere into the three Organs can be prevented by wearing of a N95 mask/normal mask, then the question as to how the eyes are protected from being infected is to be answered yet, as both N95 and normal masks do not cover eyes. Conversely, can it be concluded that there is no aerial transmission hence?

Surface transmission seems to be a theory in infancy, but in the absence of clarity of the susceptibility of the Eyes to aerosols, it is to be held counter to the point. Even during the swab tests, samples are drawn from the mouth and Nose and the Eyes are clearly excluded. The Nose and mouth have been clearly pointed out as the surfaces of recipient of the Virus.

In the background of Community transmission of this Virus, the role of the Nose and Mouth acquire greater importance in understanding the intensity of the spread. There are instances of the flow of this Virus from one infected person to another, although both were wearing N95 masks, but probably because of the reason that both were together in a Car for a long time and chatting. There are also clear examples of the spread not occurring in a jogging park, although the joggers do not wear masks while jogging, but maintain safe distance.

Judging from the size and susceptibility of the Nose and Mouth to inhaling of this Virus, the doctrine of probability theory suggest that the chances of the Virus entering through the mouth is greater than that of entering through the Nose, in comparison, in any situation of possible community transmission. There is no finding in medical theory, so far, on this point.

It is also empirically proved/accepted that the Virus does not enter a well-ventilated place as in comparison to a compressed atmosphere. Hence, it can be empirically concluded that this pandemic growth is mainly due to community spread happening- due to interaction in a congested place, crowded place, congested and non-ventilated habitats, due to close face-to-face contact combined with heavy breathing and inhalation/exhalation while talking.

A sharp point of thinking in terms of controlling the spread occurs if it can be imagined that no person talks while in close contact with another person, and no person opens his/her mouth while in close contact with another person. Hence, with almost NIL exhalation/inhalation, the probability of transmission through mouth will be reduced drastically, since the statistical probability of transmission/ transfer through mouth is statistically more than that through Nose, when it comes to transmission of this Virus in public places, or in places involving close contact.

This holds weight by support of the ancient system of medical practice in India, even now, wherein when a patient enters a Doctor’s Clinic, he or she is not supposed to talk.

The Nose is designed to inhale and exhale and is equipped with filtering supports, to ward of pathogens. But traditionally, humans do tend to use mouth as an instrument to exhale and inhale, which is not actually the function of the mouth. The mouth, when opened, exposes itself to the pathogens around.

This simple step of not opening the mouth/ shutting the mouth when in outside places will clearly minimise the risk of exhalation of the virus from an asymptomatic covid patient to other potential recipients. Conversely, it will also minimise the risk of accumulation of Covid particles from an infected person nearby, a joint community initiative which will go a long way in controlling the spread of this pandemic.

The scope and probability of a Virus entering a host through the Nose and mouth is now diagnosed. For the Covid particle to enter through the Nose, it has to rise upwards vertically before it can settle into the mucus of a victim’s nasal layer, a statistical event which looks unlikely, unless there is an upward push given to the Virus at the entry point of the Nose. Further, very hard inhalation is not possible through Nose. As compared, the Mouth offers an easy entry point to the Virus, apart from being bigger in accommodating the particles, because of its cavity volume. Again, the Mouth offers an easier horizontal entry to the Covid particle. Thus it is clearly striking to notionalise the possible entry method facilitated to the Virus by the human physiology.

Ocular(eye) transmission is a very definite possibility, as shown in the paper: “2019-nCoV transmission through the ocular surface must not be ignored”. A small proportion of patients are found to have conjunctivitis. However there are opposing papers which argue that there is insufficient evidence shown in that paper, as not all patients with covid-19 showed a positive test for SARS‐CoV‐2 nucleic acid in the eye. The paper “The possibility of COVID‐19 transmission from eye to nose” speculates that the covid-19 virus enters the eyes through droplets, which then passes into nasolacrimal ducts and finally into the respiratory tract. Hence it is recommended that healthcare personal wear safety goggles. Conjunctival epithelium tissue in humans is easily contaminated by droplets and fluids. As a consequence, ocular infections, and thus respiratory infections are possible. If entry through Eyes is ruled out or is a rare event, then it can be inferred that the entry can be only through Nose or Mouth.

SARS-COV-2 may have specific affinity to the olfactory(nose) epithelium, and may lead to infection in the early stages i the Central nervous system. This route is already well known for influenza, and other similar virus diseases. Symptoms such as nausea, headache, and vomiting are in fact CNS symptoms. This ultimately induces neurological diseases. This information is present in “Pathophysiology of the COVID-19 – entry to the CNS through the nose”.

Reported in a recent Nature Medicine article, the two viral-entry proteins that COVID-19 virus uses to get into our body is present in large concentration in our nose (goblet cells and ciliated cells) and also traces have also been in our eyes. This makes them to be two of the prime entry points for the virus. The same cells (ACE2 and TMPRSS2 genes) were also found to be present in digestive tract, which could be the pathway that the virus takes when it enters the body through the mouth.

This suggests that even though there are several physical factors discussed above that make it difficult for COVID particles to enter through our Nose, but once there it is very easy for COVID particles to infect the body. The study also suggests that nose appears to be better at spreading COVID-19 than mouth. Not wearing masks properly and exposing the nose would be very detrimental as this allows particles to enter via the nose and while exhaling through the nose a high concentration of infectious air is generated. The study conducted in Hubei Province, China (source) shows that COVID-19 may be transmitted through the eye. From the data analyzed from 38 patients infected with COVID-19 from Hubei Province, China, 12 individuals had occular manifestations of the disease. The study also found COVID-19 on 2 of the 11 patients for SARS-CoV-2 via nasopharyngeal swabs.

This means that there is a non-zero probability that COVID-19 can get transmitted through the eyes, even if its is pretty small when compared to mouth and nose. All this being said, the current evidence suggests that COVID-19 transmission is predominantely through close, unprotected contact and chances of getting infected due to airborne transmission is very less. According to WHO reports summarizing the 75,465 cases in China were through airborne transmission. Therefore by following the social distancing protocol and maintaining a physical distance of 6ft it is possible to avoid being infected. If that is not possible, wearing masks and other protective gears to minimize external droplets from coming into contact with our mouth and to limit talking while in a crowded environment will help a long way. Studies show that the half lives of SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV-1 were similar in aerosols with the median estimate being 1.1-1.2 hours. Therefore avoiding crowded environments would be highly encouraged or to atleast keep time spent in crowded environment to a bare minimum.

If the transmission is through air droplets or body-to-body, as hypothesised above, the chances of the mouth donning the role of a landing spot for the Virus is very much higher than the chance of the particle entering through the Nose, owing to the difficulties in upward motion posed by the Nose to the predator. The aerosol has to defy gravity in order to enter the inner, upward nasal space, which is unlikely, considering the strong possibility of the aerosol choosing an easier motional way through the nearby mouth, as a host pocket offering a path of lesser resistance.

Supposing a situation when the aerosol is in descent and is accosted by a human face, it can be considered that the inhaling Nose affords the aerosol the facility of easy access. However, this point can be countered by the fact that the inhalation would have been preceded by an exhalation, a treatment which would have infact pushed the aerosol farther.

Masks by themselves cannot protect a potential victim from the invasive particle, since the minute particle can seep through. In the backdrop of a potential victim wearing a mask in public places, the potential victim is more assured of less risk of infection, in the event of he or she not opening her mouth, thereby further reducing the chances of the particle’s entry through the mouth.

Even in the case of possible transmission through aerosols or air-bubbles, the predictive theory so far has been that the particle floats in the air out of its own buoyancy before settling down slowly on the ground, unless a potential victim’s face accosts it. Here again the same theory as advanced vide above holds good and the Virus is offered only the mouth as an easier entry point.

Even assuming the unlikely event of the aerosol entering the system through the nasal tract as a factual reality, the probability of such an event can be safely projected as tending to 0.5 with the remaining probability figure of 0.5 attributable to contracting the aerosol through mouth, with the Eyes having an almost zero rate of infectivity.

As discussed above, there is unequal and varying chance of a Covid particle entering through the potential three entry points- the Eye, Nose and Mouth.

By the above analysis, and by appealing to the theory of probability, under the assumption that the probability of entry through eyes is almost surely zero, though may not be actually zero, giving a small margin for entry through Eyes by rubbing of a carrier finger on the eyes. Which leaves the entire balance probability of occurrence of transmission through Nose and Mouth, which combinedly tend to be almost surely One, if not One. Between Nose and Mouth, as argued out above, the probability of transmission through Mouth is much higher than the probability of transmission through Nose, which arrives at the probability of the transmission through Mouth a more sure event than compared to the probability of transfer through Nose which is a relatively less surer event. Thus the ‘mantra’ of effectively closing the mouth while in public places is likely to comprehensively limit the entry of the Covid particle into a Human’s physiological system.

Further Issues needing attention in the matter of a Covid particle entering into a human physiological system

If it can be presumed that Slurping is the main cause behind a Covid entry into the human body, then this study will be helpful in analyzing such a situation. The intrinsic variance in the Slurping capacity of each of the three organs, viz.a.viz the Eyes, Nose and the Mouth becomes the key issue.

With intermittent flapping/shuttering of the Eye-Lids acting as a natural barrier, a relatively lower probability of Covid entry through the Eyes is a strong possibility. With the potential restriction offered by the Nose, by way of making it difficult to a Covid particle in terms of upward motion defying gravity, as also the alternate process of inhalation/exhalation which in a sense disturbs the air-borne stability of the floating Covid particle, the probability of covid entry through the Nose is equally rerstricted, and hence can be said minimal.

In comparison, the mouth hardly offers resistance to a Covid entry, thereby making the Slurp effective and successful. A visualization of a situation wherein a swarm of Covid particles accost a human face may be helpful in unraveling the possible consequences: (1) a portion of the swarm hits the Eyes- then there is every likelihood that 50% of this portion gets slurped and the remaining 50% may slide down, due to flapping of the Eyes. The sliding 50% may slowly fall on the ground or slide downwards to around the Mouth, even avoiding Nose, because of downward mobility and gravity pull. (2) a portion of the swarm hits the Nose area, but slurp unlikely to happen- because of inhale/exhale sequence exhibited by the Nostrils and also the deterring upward motion required, to induce such a slurp, though the mucous membrane can facilitate a slurp. (3) a portion of the swarm hitting the face surface around the mouth, by virtue of the slurping qualities inbuilt, has a high probability of sucking such an entire portion.

The above analysis indicates that mouth offers least resistance to the incoming particle which may enhance the slurping capacity, in effect meaning that the mouth can act as a high risk entry point to a Covid particle. If a further situation is envisaged wherein after splashing on a human face, remnants of Covids stick to the face, such particles can be removed by wiping the face with natural sanitizers, as otherwise, such sticked particles may eventually get slurped in. For this, positioning of natural sanitizers in public places, to enable effective face-washing may be the answer.

The emerging Covid transmission Hypothesis:

Wearing of mask, though offers a psychological cushion to a potential victim, by itself does not offer 100% insulation against a sneaking Covid particle, say, in comparison to the near-total insulation offered by a plastic vizor shield, which acts as a physical barrier.

Let us examine a situation of a person not wearing either a mask nor a vizor and exposing to an on-coming cloud of Covid particles. In turn, the face exposes the three entry points- the Eyes, the Nostrils and the Mouth to the grave risk of absorbing the Covid particle. The eyes, due to the inherent function of flapping of the eye-lids, bisects the incoming covid cloud into two- with half of the potential particles gaining entry and the other half being shut out, due to flapping.

The nostrils has a split function- breathe-in and breathe-out, alternatively. This split function again bisects the approaching Covid cloud into two parts- one part gaining entry into the inner nostrils, and the other part being thwarted, due to the gush of air emitted. Further, the Covid cloud has to first essay a near-downward motion and then approach the entrance to the nostrils, so as to be inhaled on to the membrane, which involves defying the law of gravity. It is to be observed here that the concept of ‘negative’ probability, a theory developed by (late) Prof. ECG Sudarshan, a theoretical physicist, plays a role at this juncture. Cumulatively speaking, the lifeless Covid particle has to make a downward dive and then await suction by the thwarting nostrils, to access the nasal membrane. As argued, there is a strong possibility of occurrence of this event with negative probability, thereby suggesting that such an event may not occur at all.

On the contrary, the oral mouth, with its vast Oral cavity, affords a easier access to the Covid particle with very less resistance. An open mouth comes directly in line with a Covid cloud, offering very little or Nil resistance, probabilistically speaking. The Covid entry is facilitated by the path of least resistance into the mouth.

The above discussion lead to a strong hypothetical conclusion that the probability of the mouth affording entry of an on-coming Covid particle ranges between 0.3 to 0.9 ( the minimum probability point of 0.3 being fixed by default and the maximum probability point 0.9 fixed on the basis of the arguments advanced above, and even leaving a probability point of 0.1 to residual factors).

Ramifications of the findings:

As per the theory advanced above, it is to be concluded that the entry of a Covid particle into a human physiological system through the mouth occurs with a minimum chance of 30% and a maximum chance of 90%. Conversely, it can be held that if a mouth is shut, the chances of preventing a Covid particle entry lies anywhere between 30% and 90%.

Most quantum of the transmission of this novel Covid Virus has been found happening in public places, places with crowding people, and congested unventilated places. As per the discussion and findings made above, it can be safely concluded that if a person moving around in a public place or a place with crowding people, keeps his mouth closed as much as possible, the chances of his avoiding getting infected by a Covid cloud ranges between atleast 30% and upto 90%, depending upon for how long the person is able to close his mouth.

Imagine a person who has shut himself from the outside world, by hiding inside, say, a glass cubicle. Logically, this person has almost zero chance of getting infected by a Covid Virus.
But there are instances of a person who sparsely moves into a open space or a public crowd confirmed to have contracted this Virus.
By the term ‘Contracting the Virus’, we mean intaking a substantial load of the Covid particle.
There are also instances of a person who moves around frequently in a public place, but has escaped contracting of a substantial ‘Load’.
As known, Covid particles are micronic lifeless particles, which require nature’s laws of motion to make them access a person’s physiological system, in substantial numbers, and though the outer periphery (face in this case) of the person, so as to enter the physiological system of such person.
In a public place, take the case of a cloud of hi-speed Covid particles, zooming out of a sneezed mouth, directly being intercepted by the face of an un-infected person. The cloud will splash the skin surface of the face of the potential victim first, with a few of the parasites managing to enter the system, through the eyes, nose and throat. But logically, the bulk of the cloud remains splashed on the remaining facial surface of the victim. Now, there is bound to be sweat on the face-skin of the victim, and even otherwise, the face has a sticky surface, giving a high probability of the covid cloud sticking on to the surface of the victim’s face. In such a situation, logically, a substantial portion of the splashed Covid cloud will stick on to the skin surface of the face, and will hold on for a period of time onto face surface of the victim. During this interregnum, there is every chance of the sticking covid particles to slither into the system through the eyes, nose, or the mouth.
The above arguments advanced will probably explain as how a person gets infected by a substantial covid load, inspite of maintaining Social distancing and wearing mask, while moving around in public places, or the case of a person rarely moving out, but still getting infected, unawares.
One effective way of preventing this type of spread would be to position sodium bicarbonate solution outlets in public places, so that a person moving around will skillfully wash his/her face, frequently.